am i right in think?...

[twiglet]

Since Scarlets head-to-head with London Irish puts them in 2nd place in their group and we have a better try difference does that not mean that we will be ahead of Scarlets no matter what Glocester do against the Dragons and therefore must qualify for Amlin.

Also it would probably suit Ulster to finish as the worst qualifier and be drawn away to Connacht which would mean it might suit that Glocester score their 5 tries or whatever.

As I see it we play in quarter finals of Amlin.

[DHK]

Connacht are the no1 seeds from their pool stages and so will play at home to the best runner up from the Challenge cup pools I think

[Ulster throw in]

That is correct!

[Snipe Watson]

Connacht are the no1 seeds from their pool stages and so will play at home to the best runner up from the Challenge cup pools I think

I think they play the worst Amlin group winners - Bourgoin

[Snipe Watson]

Quarter-final Pairings
1 (ACC 1) v 8 (ACC 5)
2 (ACC 2) v 7 (Heineken Cup 3)
3 (ACC 3) v 6 (Heineken Cup 2)
4 (ACC 4) v 5 (Heineken Cup 1)

if we finish worst we go to Toulon

[DHK]

Sorry I thought there were only four Amlin pools, not five.

So yeah as things stand we go to Toulon!

[3countyulsterman]

Here's my take the possible qualification for the Challenge Cup. Qualification is gained for each runner up by the following -

(a) Points total
(b) Tries scored
(c) Aggregate points difference

Pool 1
Northampton through to HEC quarter finals

Pool 2
Gloucester, 12pts, 8 tries, -19pts (5 played - next game away to Dragons)

Pool 3
Ospreys through to HEC quarter finals

Pool 4
Ulster - 17pts, 11 tries, +33pts (6 played)

Pool 5
Cardiff - 13 pts, 8 tries, +20pts (5 played - next game away to Harlequins)
Sale - 13pts, 14 tries, -21pts (5 played - next game home to Toulouse)

Pool 6
Scarlets, 17pts, 12 tries, +31pts (6 played)


The Scarlets are through due to the fact that they have scored one more try than us (12).

Gloucester can qualify if they beat the Dragons with a bonus point, as they will be level with us on points (17) but will have more tries scored (12 or more).

Pool 5 is interesting. Cardiff are ahead of Sale as they have a better head to head record over their two games.

For Sale to overtake them as runners up they need to beat Toulouse with a bonus point and hope Cardiff either lose or draw to Harlequins, or if they win, to do so without a bonus point. If this happens, Sale will qualify on 18 pts.

Cardiff can qualify if they
(a) Beat Harlequins with a winning bonus point (18 pts)
(b) If Sale haven't beaten Toulouse with a bonus point, beat Harlequins, score three tries and win by +14 pts. (ahead us as we are equal on points (17) and tries scored (11), but ahead on aggregate points difference(+34))


Hope all this makes sense. I used the BBC as a source for all the results and tables, but if I'm out on any of the above let me know.

[Big-al]

So personally, Gloucester and the Blues are or biggest threat, can't see Sale beaten toulosue and scoring 4 trys.

Cardiff are also unlikely to score 4 trys at Quins but if they score 3 and win they may be ahead of us.

Gloucester have a very good chance of being ahead of us

[for dog and ulcer]

I think I'll just wait and see how it pans out- these permutations are too much for me

[Cap'n Grumpy]

So yeah as things stand we go to Toulon!

Time to get a French monkey off our backs

[for dog and ulcer]

So yeah as things stand we go to Toulon!

Time to get a French monkey off our backs

Toulon 42 Castres 10 today!!! Won't be easy.

[Snipe Watson]

It's simple:

Scarlets are in

Its 2 from 4 or 2 from (4-1) for the other spots

We are currently 10th

Sale need a win to overtake us or Cardiff need a win to overtake us and Sale need a BP point win to overtake us and Cardiff, but if they both get non BP wins neither overtake us unless Cardiff score 3 tries and win by more than 13.

Gloucester need a BP win or a 53 point win to overtake us

or something like that

I'm away to bed, my brain hurts.

[mid ulster maestro]

With you on this one FDAU. Just keep busy today and all will be revealed later.
Mum

[Gary]

My head hurts

[McPepper]

well the dragons are winning 16-10 to glaws at half-time