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Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 10:00 am
by big mervyn
jean valjean wrote: ↑Sun Apr 28, 2024 9:21 am
Remaining fixtures:
Stormers 45 pts - Dragons A, connacht A, Lions H
Connacht 44 pts - munster A, Stormers H, Leinster A
Ulster - 44 pts - Scarlets A, leinster H, munster A
Benetton 44pts - sharks A, bulls A, Edinburgh H.
Edinburgh 43pts - Zebre H, Munster H, benetton A
Ospreys 40 pts - leinster A, Dragons H, Cardiff A.
Lions 39pts - Cardiff H, Glasgow H, Stormers A.
The above shows just how tight the race for play off places is. Likely that bonus points will come into the mix, but a win at Scarlets is an absolute must. The stormers, Ospreys and lions can realistically expect 2 wins while the rest may struggle.
We better hope leinster win against the saints so they have to rest up against us.
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You would think they would go strong for that one and weaker against Ulster
Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 10:15 am
by CIMANFOREVER
Not now after capitulating with the kids in SA. Surely URC should be looking at Teams sending deliberately weakened squads and undermining the competition. With the league so tight down to 11th every game has huge bearing on so many teams and potential revenue/ qualification for EPCR
Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 10:23 am
by jean valjean
CIMANFOREVER wrote:Not now after capitulating with the kids in SA. Surely URC should be looking at Teams sending deliberately weakened squads and undermining the competition. With the league so tight down to 11th every game has huge bearing on so many teams and potential revenue/ qualification for EPCR
They will hopefully have a champions Cup final a week after playing us. There is no way they will risk a starting 15 or perhaps even the 23 in Belfast. Leo really has thrown all the eggs in on reaching that final and counting on going full bore afterwards in the URC play offs. You'd fancy leinster home or away in that with a full deck.
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Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 2:33 pm
by big mervyn
We're comfortably sixth favourites to win the Grand final so the bookies obviously fancy Ulster to make top 8. 16/1 seems very generous (or stingy depending on what way you look at it) mind
Leinster 4/7
Bulls 13/2
Munster 7/1
Stormers 10/1
Glasgow 12/1
Ulster 16/1
Connacht 40/1
Edinburgh 50/1
Benetton 50/1
Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 3:12 pm
by HammerTime
Not sure. Think we'll beat Scarlets but take nothing from last 2 games v Munster (who are in serious form) and Leinster (who could well now send a strong team to Ravenhill). 4 or 5 points won't cut it.
Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 6:40 pm
by justinr73
Leinster will not send a strong team to Belfast if they’re playing in the Cup final the week after.
Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 8:16 pm
by Neill_M
justinr73 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 28, 2024 6:40 pm
Leinster will not send a strong team to Belfast if they’re playing in the Cup final the week after.
Getting zero match points in South Africa may change that. Top 4 very close now - Glasgow 58, Leinster 54, Munster 53, Bulls 51. They will not want to a have an away semi final / final in Pretoria.
Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 9:08 pm
by justinr73
I don’t think they’ll be that worried.
Their priority is the Cup and if Munster could win the URC with away knockouts last season then a fully loaded Leinster should be alright.
Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 10:28 pm
by So It Is
jean valjean wrote: ↑Sun Apr 28, 2024 9:21 am
Remaining fixtures:
Stormers 45 pts - Dragons A, connacht A, Lions H
Connacht 44 pts - munster A, Stormers H, Leinster A
Ulster - 44 pts - Scarlets A, leinster H, munster A
Benetton 44pts - sharks A, bulls A, Edinburgh H.
Edinburgh 43pts - Zebre H, Munster H, benetton A
Ospreys 40 pts - leinster A, Dragons H, Cardiff A.
Lions 39pts - Cardiff H, Glasgow H, Stormers A.
The above shows just how tight the race for play off places is. Likely that bonus points will come into the mix, but a win at Scarlets is an absolute must. The stormers, Ospreys and lions can realistically expect 2 wins while the rest may struggle. We better hope leinster win against the saints so they have to rest up against us.
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50pts should get us over the line, so a 5 pointer next week and a LBP somewhere in the last 2 matches.
Don't see the Lions winning more than 1 of those final games given the form the Stormers and Glasgow are in.
Ospreys won't get more than 10pts.
Embra might get 10pts.
Benetton could lose all 3, pick up a few LBPs, as could Connacht.
Stormers likely to get 12-15 points.
Re: The run in
Posted: Sun Apr 28, 2024 10:55 pm
by Neill_M
Well after next weekend could well know if we need 7th or 8th to make Champions Cup for next season.
Benetton should beat Gloucester who are rubbish. Sharks v Clermont is an interesting game to call. Clermont are 6 points off the Top 14 playoffs with 4 games to play.
Re: The run in
Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2024 2:11 pm
by Neill_M
Stormers bringing the Springboks with them on their last NH tour of the regular season, play Dragons in R16 and Connacht in R17.
Re: The run in
Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2024 3:34 pm
by justinr73
Connacht lost Buckley and Prendergast in the first ten minutes plus JJH to what sounds like a nasty knee injury.
Tough last three games for them, especially if the Stormers are going to be fully loaded.
Re: The run in
Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2024 5:50 pm
by CIMANFOREVER
So what we're all in essence saying is none of us has a clue. It's like rugby version of The Diceman.
The dice will roll as they roll
Re: The run in
Posted: Mon Apr 29, 2024 5:51 pm
by CIMANFOREVER
justinr73 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2024 3:34 pm
Connacht lost Buckley and Prendergast in the first ten minutes plus JJH to what sounds like a nasty knee injury.
Tough last three games for them, especially if the Stormers are going to be fully loaded.
And our injury toll is also mounting, so it evens out.
Munsters late runs coincide with their injury returns. Fancy them to retain URC