The UAFC

It like everybody blames the Government -- but fails to recognise how intentions become warped in the Bureaucracy .

Take privately run care homes -- they are responsible from their own purchasing policies -- and have their own suppliers -- yet it is the Governments fault ( or they like to make it the governments fault ) The same could be true of GPs I don't know .

The fact is of course only the end user knows what is needed -- but normally lacks the "know how" how to source that need .

It not that I believe governments are blameless -- rather it is the stupid expectation -- that they have the answers .

Shan

The USA is like no other country on earth (politically ) with central and State Governments - with States trying to maintain independence from the centre with the smaller states using their influence centrally to try and exploit the richer states -- only thing the central Government has clear responsibility for is defence and each of the Armed Forces along with the CIA and the FBI exploit the budget to its fullest extent.

The Political Independence of the State comes at a price -- the inability to raise Taxes for a universal welfare system Texas, California, Chicago, New York etc realise that they can kiss independence good bye if a central welfare system is introduced. Because the smaller states couldn't afford to create a system of their own .

I watched that press conference for a while, Shan, but had to turn it off. It was just so embarrassing. I've turned a cringed at a few before, but that was the worst.

rumncoke wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:34 pm Shan

The USA is like no other country on earth (politically ) with central and State Governments - with States trying to maintain independence from the centre with the smaller states using their influence centrally to try and exploit the richer states -- only thing the central Government has clear responsibility for is defence and each of the Armed Forces along with the CIA and the FBI exploit the budget to its fullest extent.

The Political Independence of the State comes at a price -- the inability to raise Taxes for a universal welfare system Texas, California, Chicago, New York etc realise that they can kiss independence good bye if a central welfare system is introduced. Because the smaller states couldn't afford to create a system of their own .

Rum - I am well aware of how the U.S operates. What you are outlining has no relevance to the point I am making. To clarify in case you missed it the first time - I am talking about this specific crisis, not about how the U.S and its individual states operate in general. Any eejit can detail multiple reasons why things cannot be done - I am saying if there is a will a way can be extremely easily found to allow the federal government agencies to take any and all required actions to try to limit the death rate of this virus. If things cannot be achieved which require any "out of box" thinking or any deviation to the established process to deal with a , hopefully, unique situation it doesn't say a whole lot for alleged political leaders and decision makers.

rumncoke wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:27 pm It like everybody blames the Government -- but fails to recognise how intentions become warped in the Bureaucracy .

Take privately run care homes -- they are responsible from their own purchasing policies -- and have their own suppliers -- yet it is the Governments fault ( or they like to make it the governments fault ) The same could be true of GPs I don't know .

The fact is of course only the end user knows what is needed -- but normally lacks the "know how" how to source that need .

It not that I believe governments are blameless -- rather it is the stupid expectation -- that they have the answers .

Maybe some people think the Govts have all the answers or should have all the answers but I don't think anyone on here has suggested that. From what I can see folk just want the Govts and the agencies they are responsible for to do everything they should be doing - One simple example of that is for the Govt to ensure the health agencies have all the resources they require and provide whatever assistance is required where a delta exists. Another example is for the Govt to ensure the police agencies have the necessary resources and empowerment to ensure everybody is adhering to the restrictions in place. I don't think anybody expects the health secretary or any health ministers to be on the front line or to be ordering the equipment etc themselves......Mind you Leo Varadkar who is a doctor is doing one shift per week in a hospital in Dublin. It certainly beats a leader whose primary contribution is spouting ballix.

solidarity wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:43 pm I watched that press conference for a while, Shan, but had to turn it off. It was just so embarrassing. I've turned a cringed at a few before, but that was the worst.

Agreed Solids. Dreadful stuff and worse than that is adding negative value.

I'm pretty much in agreement with what Tender says. Just a couple of things to add. I don't think any other government that we could have had in place at the minute would have performed any better. Both sides of the political/economic spectrum have things they want to protect, other than the lives of its citizens and I suppose they have to.

My particular beef is with how Public Health Medics have been treated. On the one hand, the government has ignored or downplayed the guidance of PH but it has also underfunded it for years so that things that could have been in place were not. But two other groups must take some responsibility. Other medics have also treated PH as the Cinderella of the service so it has regularly been undervalued.

Public opinion also plays its part. When was the last time you saw a TV public appeal for the support of PH? It is great to have appeals for cancer charities, children's hospices etc. These are really good things but, this particular set of circumstances shows that, if we only support aspects of medicine that can touch heart-strings, we'll have an unbalanced health system that will not be fit for purpose.

Rant over.

solidarity wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 7:41 pm I'm pretty much in agreement with what Tender says. Just a couple of things to add. I don't think any other government that we could have had in place at the minute would have performed any better. Both sides of the political/economic spectrum have things they want to protect, other than the lives of its citizens and I suppose they have to.

Sorry, but I don't think any other government that we could have had in place from the last 30 years would have performed any worse.

All it would have taken was:
- a closing of travel to Italy in Feb
- exclusion of any away fans travelling to champions league/europa league fixtures in England in Feb
- closure of mass gatherings in Feb

To dramatically pull down the infection rate **then**.

Consider this - just 10 less people infected in mid-March then means upward of 2000 less people infected now based on a transmission rate of 20% per day.

How many people do you think carried it in from ski trips, or from going to watch football matches? Or bloody Cheltenham?

Boris & Cummings focus on short term economics and the abject performance of Whitty, Vallance et al in blind faith in their own brad pitt models while refusing to learn from elsewhere has resulted in a disaster.


The UK & Ireland are two islands that have thrown away their greatest asset in a pandemic. Contrast that with New Zealand.

Totally agree Amiga.

The numbers can’t be considered accurate. They only test people who arrive at hospital with some of the symptoms. Having one of the symptoms doesn’t get you a test...I know. So all the healthier specimens who phone 111, get told to take paracetamol and given the brush off with a ‘Good Luck Mate’ in a thick scouse accent (not joking) aren’t counted as infected. They ride it out and most of them recover, some only suffering severe headache, or a bad flu like episode.
Not until the UK is testing their promised 100000 per day, will we have figures closer to reality. Government spin aimed at not frightening the snowflakes and making themselves seem slightly less like the uncaring, money grabbing, pigfecking scumbags they truly are.

What borders on stupidity? Ireland and Scotland.

Shan
you miss my point it is the system of Government which inhibits the implementation of a solution.

Like Courts precedents are avoided where the State folds to the will of central government especially with a President Like Trump

The only problem with an early lockdown is human nature and its ability to deal with the problem of lack of social contact and you then have the problem of the infection in Spain France and Germany not just Italy.

I doubt if your predicative model is any better than those advising Government . The decisions made have been based on the advise given . Much as some like to think decision are made by individuals 9 times out of 10 or 99 times out of a hundred they are made by committees in the case of Government the Cabinet. And you can bet your last dollar nobody was making individual decisions when it comes to dealing with a disease to which Scientists have not identified a cure .

Not even the great bluffer Trump is quite that stupid his problem is in election year he has to play to the gallery -- which isn't the smartest thing to do if those advising you are basically using models with unknown variables.

rumncoke wrote: ↑Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:53 amI doubt if your predicative model is any better than those advising Government.

Supposedly 2 unbelievably brad pitt assumptions were used:
- It had the same virulence as the normal flu
- It had the same R0 as the normal flu

If true, 2 minutes on an excel spreadsheet using public numbers from China would have been more accurate than the original models used by SAGE.

--------------------

In other news, the Sunday Times has revealed the depth of ineptitude of the government. Boris couldn't be f**ked even turning up at the meetings regarding it in Jan & Feb.

Everyone's an expert epidemiologist all of a sudden.
This situation is unprecedented so the best predictive models are just educated guess work. The UK government listened to the experts and followed the science. It'll take at least 12 months before we know effective the UK response has been.

Trump's approach has been wilfully ignorant of the science and politically motivated, that's scandalous and an entirely different discussion.